Outlook for 2009


Pearson achieved a strong performance in 2008 against the backdrop of a sharp deterioration in the global economy. Though the company performed well, market conditions became more difficult for some of our businesses as the year went on.

In the fourth quarter, trading momentum remained strong for our education business. The Financial Times Group continued to achieve good growth - in particular at Interactive Data and Mergermarket - but FT Publishing saw a decline in advertising revenues (which now account for 4% of Pearson’s sales). Consumer publishing markets in the US and UK were challenging, but Penguin performed well in the key holiday selling season.

We are planning on the basis that the tough market conditions that we saw for some of our businesses towards the end of 2008 are likely to persist throughout 2009. We expect to benefit from a range of early actions to revise products and supply lines, reduce costs and sustain investment. Based on current exchange rates and market conditions we would expect to achieve full-year adjusted earnings at or above the 2008 level of 57.7p per share.

In Education, we are planning for weak conditions in the US School publishing market but expect continued growth in our testing, Higher Education and International Education businesses. We expect the new US administration’s emphasis on education, reflected in both the economic stimulus package and the focus on reform, to provide a significant boost to education institutions. The extent and timing of the impact on our business is unclear at this stage, so we have not included these factors in our guidance.

At the FT Group, we anticipate continued strong demand for high-quality analysis of global business, finance, politics and economics; a tough year for advertising; strong renewal rates in our subscription businesses; and continued growth at Interactive Data.

At Penguin, we expect another competitive performance in challenging trading conditions for book publishers and booksellers.

Interest and tax. In 2009, we expect our interest charge to adjusted earnings to be higher than 2008 reflecting the impact of the recent strength of the dollar on our largely US dollar-denominated debt and the pensionsrelated credit to interest becoming a debit in 2009. Our profit and loss tax charge is likely to be in the 26% to 28% range and we now expect our cash tax to stay close to 2008 levels.

Exchange rates. Pearson generates approximately 60% of its sales in the US, and each 5 cent change in the average £:$ exchange rate for the full year (which in 2008 was £1:$1.85) would have an impact of approximately 1p on adjusted earnings per share.